FC BW Linz 1-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Sturm Graz at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC BW Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC BW Linz at Hofmann Personal Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC BW Linz 1.60 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC BW Linz have won 0, Sturm Graz 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sturm Graz trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 49% versus Sturm Graz 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 46% | Sturm Graz 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.35 xG and Sturm Graz 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.031 / defence 0.696 | Sturm Graz attack 1.090 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.195. FC BW Linz's defence rating of 0.696 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 29 FC BW Linz games / 29 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 47% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 25%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Sturm Graz 4.00. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC BW Linz as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC BW Linz 50% | Sturm Graz 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 47% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG FC BW Linz 1.35 / Sturm Graz 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 1.031 / def 0.696 | Sturm Graz attack 1.090 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sturm Graz xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
FC BW Linz 1 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 47% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
Record (2 meetings): FC BW Linz 0W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.53
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.26
0.91
Sturm Graz xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 0.91 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 11W 12D 16L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC BW Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz's form line: 23W 11D 5L from 39 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 10W 7D 2L from 19 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.74 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 23W 11D 5L in their last 39 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.53 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.95 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Sturm Graz won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
FC BW Linz
1
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 8 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 47%, Sturm Graz 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC BW Linz) and 58% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 32%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FC BW Linz's games and 63% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 58% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sturm Graz defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 1-2 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.35 xG and Sturm Graz 0.91 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.03 / defence 0.70 against Sturm Graz attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 47% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 25%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sturm Graz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 46%, Sturm Graz 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.