Austria Vienna 2-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 13 March 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Austria Vienna, 1.90 for Wolfsberger AC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 59% versus Wolfsberger AC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 36% | Wolfsberger AC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.42 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.008 / defence 0.986 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.761 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.235. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Austria Vienna games / 22 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 25%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Wolfsberger AC 4.00. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Austria Vienna 60% | Wolfsberger AC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Austria Vienna 1.42 / Wolfsberger AC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.008 / def 0.986 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.761 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Wolfsberger AC xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna 2 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 49% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.76x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.71
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.35
0.93
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.93 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 8W 9D 5L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 11W 4D 7L from 22 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.68 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 3D 4L from 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.55 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 8W 9D 5L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 4D 7L in their last 22 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.55 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 64%, Wolfsberger AC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Austria Vienna) and 54% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 46% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 54% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out Wolfsberger AC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.42 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 25%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 36%, Wolfsberger AC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.50 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.