Austria Vienna 2-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Austria Vienna face Lask Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Austria Vienna welcome Lask Linz to Generali Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 25 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Austria Vienna's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lask Linz stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lask Linz's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.60 (Lask Linz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Austria Vienna, 2 for Lask Linz and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Austria Vienna 0–0 Lask Linz — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 43% versus Lask Linz 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 46% | Lask Linz 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.56 xG and Lask Linz 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.160 / defence 0.979 | Lask Linz attack 1.097 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.018. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 25 games and Lask Linz's last 25. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 48% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 27%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.08 | Draw 3.96 | Lask Linz 3.76. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Lask Linz 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Austria Vienna 25 games, Lask Linz 25) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 48% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.56 / Lask Linz 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.160 / def 0.979 | Lask Linz attack 1.097 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lask Linz xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Austria Vienna 2 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz part of?
Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 48% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Austria Vienna and Lask Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 25 games and Lask Linz's last 25, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.96
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.66
1.09
Lask Linz xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.09 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 15W 11D 9L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Lask Linz's form line: 15W 10D 10L from 35 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.60 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.88 PPG from their last 17 home games (8W 8D 1L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 6W 6D 5L from their last 17 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.31 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Lask Linz in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Lask Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
❓ Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 15W 11D 9L in their last 35 games (1.60 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 15W 10D 10L in their last 35 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Lask Linz away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.88 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Lask Linz have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Apr 2026, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Lask Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 2, Lask Linz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Lask Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Austria Vienna 0-2 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 41%, Lask Linz 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Austria Vienna) and 41% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Lask Linz in 35%; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 35% of games; Lask Linz in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Lask Linz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 47% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and Lask Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 41% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Lask Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 76% of Lask Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out Lask Linz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Lask Linz 2-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.56 xG and Lask Linz 1.09 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Lask Linz attack 1.10 / defence 0.91, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 48% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 27%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 46%, Lask Linz 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Lask Linz's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.60 PPG, Lask Linz 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.