Austria Klagenfurt 0-6 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg make the trip to Wörthersee Stadion to face Austria Klagenfurt in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's home record at Wörthersee Stadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.30 PPG clear of Austria Klagenfurt in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.50 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Red Bull Salzburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 68% and Red Bull Salzburg 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 56% | Red Bull Salzburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.04 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.944 / defence 1.135 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.863 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.237. Data: 22 Austria Klagenfurt games / 22 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 32% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Austria Klagenfurt 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 32% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.04 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.944 / def 1.135 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.863 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Red Bull Salzburg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Klagenfurt 0 - 6 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 32% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (0.94) and Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (0.86x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
32%
3.17
29%
3.50
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.25
1.21
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.21 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 7W 10D 8L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 20W 4D 1L from 25 games, 2.56 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.32 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Klagenfurt.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (4W 6D 2L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 8W 3D 1L from 12 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.28 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 20W 4D 1L in their last 25 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.50 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Austria Klagenfurt or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Klagenfurt have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Austria Klagenfurt, 58% for Red Bull Salzburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 50% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 58% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Klagenfurt 0-6 at Wörthersee Stadion, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.04 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.21 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.21 projection by 4.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 32% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 56%, Red Bull Salzburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.