Austria Klagenfurt 1-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Austria Klagenfurt welcome Lask Linz to Wörthersee Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Klagenfurt stand at 2W 2D 3L from 7 Bundesliga matches — 1.14 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Austria Klagenfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Klagenfurt's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 games at Wörthersee Stadion this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.14 — Austria Klagenfurt are significantly better at Wörthersee Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lask Linz — All Games: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.86 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.14 PPG (Austria Klagenfurt) versus 0.86 (Lask Linz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 86% and Lask Linz 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 71% | Lask Linz 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.36 xG and Lask Linz 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.205 / defence 1.197 | Lask Linz attack 0.663 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.341. Data: 7 Austria Klagenfurt games / 7 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 40% | Draw 35% | Lask Linz 25%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Lask Linz 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 100% | Lask Linz 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 40% | Draw 35% | Lask Linz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.36 / Lask Linz 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.205 / def 1.197 | Lask Linz attack 0.663 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lask Linz xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz?
Austria Klagenfurt 1 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 40% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 2.14 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (1.21) and Lask Linz's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
40%
2.51
35%
2.88
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.43
1.06
Lask Linz xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.06 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 2W 2D 3L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lask Linz's form line: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Klagenfurt on 1.14 PPG, Lask Linz on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Austria Klagenfurt are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.86 PPG overall record — Lask Linz travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Klagenfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 0.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Lask Linz away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 2.33 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lask Linz have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when Lask Linz won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Austria Klagenfurt
2
Draws
8
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 0, Lask Linz have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Lask Linz 6-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Austria Klagenfurt at 100%, Lask Linz at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Austria Klagenfurt and 0% for Lask Linz.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz in 33%; Lask Linz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 33% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 0% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt and Lask Linz finished level at 1-1 at Wörthersee Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.36 xG and Lask Linz 1.06 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.21 / defence 1.20 against Lask Linz attack 0.66 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 40% | Draw 35% | Lask Linz 25%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 71%, Lask Linz 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.14 PPG, Lask Linz 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.