Admira Wacker 1-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 37%, yet in-form Admira Wacker provide a compelling counter-argument — this Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 6 as Admira Wacker welcome TSV Hartberg to BSFZ-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Admira Wacker have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BSFZ-Arena, Admira Wacker have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BSFZ-Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Admira Wacker have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Admira Wacker have won 1, TSV Hartberg 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Admira Wacker winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Admira Wacker in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Admira Wacker 59% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 48% | TSV Hartberg 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.13 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.763 / defence 1.321 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.729 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.238. Admira Wacker's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Admira Wacker's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Admira Wacker games / 22 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 34% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 37%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | TSV Hartberg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Admira Wacker (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Admira Wacker 50% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 34% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Admira Wacker 1.13 / TSV Hartberg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 0.763 / def 1.321 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.729 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg?
Admira Wacker 1 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 34% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg?
Record (3 meetings): Admira Wacker 1W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Admira Wacker's attack at 0.76x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Admira Wacker's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.55
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
2.32
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.19 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Admira Wacker's recent record stands at 6W 11D 10L from 27 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 12L across 27 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Admira Wacker on 1.07 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Admira Wacker have managed 3W 3D 7L from 13 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 3W 5D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.11 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 6W 11D 10L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 10D 12L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 0.92 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Admira Wacker's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Admira Wacker
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg?
From 4 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when Admira Wacker 1-3 TSV Hartberg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Admira Wacker 46%, TSV Hartberg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Admira Wacker) and 38% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 31%; Admira Wacker have failed to score in 31% of games; TSV Hartberg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Admira Wacker's recent matches and 46% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Admira Wacker vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 38% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Admira Wacker and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Admira Wacker.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Admira Wacker 1-3 at BSFZ-Arena, Relegation Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.13 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 0.76 / defence 1.32 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.73 / defence 1.29, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 34% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 37%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 48%, TSV Hartberg 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Admira Wacker 1.07 PPG, TSV Hartberg 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.