Sharjah FC 0-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Wasl FC make the trip to Sharjah Stadium to face Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sharjah FC have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 10W 0D 0L at Sharjah Stadium — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sharjah FC. A 0.80 PPG lead over Al-Wasl FC (2.60 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sharjah FC, 0 for Al-Wasl FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sharjah FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 42% versus Al-Wasl FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 61% | Al-Wasl FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.88 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.243 / defence 0.747 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.133 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.237. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 Sharjah FC games / 31 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 55% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Wasl FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 30% | Al-Wasl FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 55% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Sharjah FC 1.88 / Al-Wasl FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.243 / def 0.747 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.133 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al-Wasl FC xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Sharjah FC 0 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 55% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (2 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (1.13x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.75
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.05
Al-Wasl FC xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
3%
35.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.05 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 2.19 PPG on a 21W 5D 5L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 12W 11D 8L from 31 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Wasl FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 2.60 PPG from 15 outings (13W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.19 PPG overall — Sharjah FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 6W 4D 5L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.52 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Al-Wasl FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 21W 5D 5L in their last 31 games (2.19 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 12W 11D 8L in their last 31 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.60 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 4-1 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 4, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 2-1 Al-Wasl FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 33%, Al-Wasl FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sharjah FC and 53% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Wasl FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 67% of Al-Wasl FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sharjah FC's matches and 53% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Wasl FC defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Sharjah FC 0-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.88 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.75 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 55% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 19%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Al-Wasl FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 61%, Al-Wasl FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Al-Wasl FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.