Sharjah FC 2-3 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Al-Jazira travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 March 2023, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Jazira — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Sharjah FC) versus 1.90 (Al-Jazira). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sharjah FC, 1 for Al-Jazira and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 35% versus Al-Jazira 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 54% | Al-Jazira 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.67 xG and Al-Jazira 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.053 / defence 0.685 | Al-Jazira attack 1.090 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.419. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.685 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Sharjah FC games / 43 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 52% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 24%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Jazira 4.17. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 40% | Al-Jazira 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 52% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Sharjah FC 1.67 / Al-Jazira 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.053 / def 0.685 | Al-Jazira attack 1.090 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al-Jazira xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Sharjah FC 2 - 3 Al-Jazira.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 52% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Record (3 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Jazira 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.11
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.72
1.06
Al-Jazira xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
5%
21.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.06 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 27W 8D 8L from 43 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira, meanwhile, have gone 23W 6D 14L across 43 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 2.07 PPG, Al-Jazira on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 14W 3D 4L from 21 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Jazira's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.70 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 27W 8D 8L in their last 43 games (2.07 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 23W 6D 14L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.14 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Jazira have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sharjah FC
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 5-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 33%, Al-Jazira 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sharjah FC and 62% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Jazira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 62% of Al-Jazira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sharjah FC's matches and 62% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Jazira defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Sharjah FC 2-3 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.67 xG and Al-Jazira 1.06 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Jazira outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.69 against Al-Jazira attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 52% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 24%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al-Jazira win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 54%, Al-Jazira 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 2.07 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.