Sharjah FC 4-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sharjah FC host Ajman at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sharjah FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC at Sharjah Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajman have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sharjah FC at 1.80 PPG versus Ajman's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sharjah FC have won 2, Ajman 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Ajman trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 37% versus Ajman 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 54% | Ajman 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.33 xG and Ajman 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.850 / defence 0.710 | Ajman attack 0.873 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.508. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Sharjah FC games / 41 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 46% | Draw 28% | Ajman 26%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Ajman 3.85. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 40% | Ajman 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 46% | Draw 28% | Ajman 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Sharjah FC 1.33 / Ajman 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.850 / def 0.710 | Ajman attack 0.873 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ajman xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Ajman kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Sharjah FC 4 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Ajman part of?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 46% chance of winning, Ajman a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sharjah FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Record (3 meetings): Sharjah FC 2W | Draws 0 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Ajman (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.58
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.27
0.94
Ajman xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.94 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC come into this having played 41 games, going 26W 8D 7L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 1.49 PPG from 41 outings (18W 7D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Ajman — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sharjah FC's home form reads 13W 3D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajman have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (9W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.37 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 26W 8D 7L in their last 41 games (2.10 PPG), while Ajman have gone 18W 7D 16L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Ajman away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.10 PPG; Ajman away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Ajman in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Ajman runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 5, Ajman have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 35%, Ajman 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sharjah FC) and 55% (Ajman). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Ajman in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 40% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sharjah FC's matches and 55% of Ajman's.
Do Sharjah FC and Ajman tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ajman in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Ajman 4-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.33 xG and Ajman 0.94 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajman landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.71 against Ajman attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 46% | Draw 28% | Ajman 26%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 54%, Ajman 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajman's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.