Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba meet at Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rashid Stadium, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are significantly better at Rashid Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai against 0.90 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 0 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.41 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.936 / defence 1.231 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.952 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.255. Data: 21 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 21 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 39%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.41 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.936 / def 1.231 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.952 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (1 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack at 0.94x the league average against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.95x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
36%
2.76
25%
4.02
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.88
1.47
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.47 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 6D 7L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad Kalba sit at 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (5W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai against 1.14 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home form reads 7W 1D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 5W 9D 7L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.20 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 5-1 on 11 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
4
Draws
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 6, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 60% for Al-Ittihad Kalba — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 40% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 40% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.41 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 39%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.43 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.