Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai host Ajman at Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 16:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Rashid Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.20 PPG, Ajman 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 0 for Ajman and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2023, ended 3–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Ajman in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65% versus Ajman 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59% | Ajman 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.07 xG and Ajman 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.248 / defence 0.834 | Ajman attack 0.970 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.448. Data: 51 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 51 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Draw 21% | Ajman 21%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Ajman 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% | Ajman 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Draw 21% | Ajman 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.07 / Ajman 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.248 / def 0.834 | Ajman attack 0.970 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ajman xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman kicked off at 16:35 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 58% chance of winning, Ajman a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman?
Record (3 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W | Draws 1 | Ajman 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Ajman (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack at 1.25x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
58%
1.72
21%
4.75
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.24
1.17
Ajman xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
3%
37.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.17 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come into this having played 51 games, going 28W 12D 11L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 1.55 PPG from 51 outings (23W 10D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 1.88 PPG, Ajman on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home form reads 17W 3D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajman have taken 1.44 points per game from 25 outings (11W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.49 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 28W 12D 11L in their last 51 games (1.88 PPG), while Ajman have gone 23W 10D 18L in their last 51 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Ajman away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.16 PPG; Ajman away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
0
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 9, Ajman have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Ajman 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 68%, Ajman 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 56% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 44% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 56% of Ajman's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Ajman in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Ajman 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Ajman 1-0 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.07 xG and Ajman 1.17 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ajman landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.25 / defence 0.83 against Ajman attack 0.97 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Draw 21% | Ajman 21%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59%, Ajman 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajman's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.88 PPG, Ajman 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.