Khorfakkan 0-2 Ajman – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Khorfakkan welcome Ajman to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 13:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 1.40 PPG, Ajman 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khorfakkan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ajman in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Khorfakkan, 2 for Ajman and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Ajman in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 74% and Ajman 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 71% | Ajman 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 2.17 xG and Ajman 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.025 / defence 1.068 | Ajman attack 0.926 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.868 / away 1.379. Data: 38 Khorfakkan games / 38 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 54% | Draw 24% | Ajman 22%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Ajman 4.55. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 60% | Ajman 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jan 2025, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 54% | Draw 24% | Ajman 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Khorfakkan 2.17 / Ajman 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.025 / def 1.068 | Ajman attack 0.926 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.868 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Ajman xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Ajman kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Ajman kicked off at 13:05 on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Khorfakkan 0 - 2 Ajman.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Ajman part of?
Khorfakkan vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 54% chance of winning, Ajman a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Khorfakkan and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
Record (6 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 3 | Ajman 2W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Ajman in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Ajman (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 1.02x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.24
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.53
1.36
Ajman xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
3%
39.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.36 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 8D 20L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman's form line: 11W 12D 15L from 38 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 1.00 PPG, Ajman on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
On the road, Ajman have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.47 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Ajman in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Ajman in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while Ajman have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Ajman away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.22 PPG; Ajman away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Ajman won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
3
Draws
5
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 2, Ajman have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Khorfakkan at 67%, Ajman at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Khorfakkan and 56% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 33% of games; Ajman in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Khorfakkan's games and 67% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Khorfakkan's matches and 56% of Ajman's.
Do Khorfakkan and Ajman tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ajman in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Khorfakkan 0-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.17 xG and Ajman 1.36 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Khorfakkan fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Ajman attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 54% | Draw 24% | Ajman 22%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ajman win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 71%, Ajman 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajman's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.00 PPG, Ajman 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.