Hatta SC 0-4 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatta SC and Al Wahda FC meet at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 13 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hatta SC's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatta SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Hatta SC have gone 0W 1D 6L this season (7 games, 0.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.14 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Wahda FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Wahda FC are 1.60 PPG clear of Hatta SC in recent Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hatta SC lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hatta SC — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hatta SC 50% and Al Wahda FC 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatta SC 57% | Al Wahda FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatta SC 0.71 xG and Al Wahda FC 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatta SC attack 0.514 / defence 1.295 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.995 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.599. Hatta SC's attack strength of 0.514 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Hatta SC games / 41 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatta SC 12% | Draw 19% | Al Wahda FC 69%. Fair-value odds: Hatta SC 8.33 | Draw 5.26 | Al Wahda FC 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatta SC 14% | Al Wahda FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatta SC 12% | Draw 19% | Al Wahda FC 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 44% | xG Hatta SC 0.71 / Al Wahda FC 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Hatta SC attack 0.514 / def 1.295 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.995 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.599 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Hatta SC xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Al Wahda FC xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 13 March 2024 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Hatta SC 0 - 4 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Hatta SC a 12% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 69% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hatta SC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Al Wahda FC?
Record (1 meetings): Hatta SC 0W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 1W.
What form are Hatta SC and Al Wahda FC in?
Hatta SC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hatta SC's attack at 0.51x the league average against Al Wahda FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (0.99x) against Hatta SC's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 14/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
12%
8.55
19%
5.14
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Hatta SC xG
Total xG
2.77
2.06
Al Wahda FC xG
8.55
12%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
13%
7.85
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
1%
67.18
34%
2.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hatta SC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Hatta SC and 2.06 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hatta SC's recent record stands at 1W 2D 11L from 14 games, a 0.36 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hatta SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 3L across 14 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 1.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatta SC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hatta SC have managed 0W 1D 6L from 7 games — 0.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Wahda FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatta SC are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.79 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC in 79%.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatta SC
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatta SC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Hatta SC have gone 1W 2D 11L in their last 14 games (0.36 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 8W 3D 3L in their last 14 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatta SC at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatta SC at home: 0.14 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatta SC
0
Draws
2
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Al Wahda FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatta SC have won 0, Al Wahda FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatta SC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2024, when Hatta SC 0-4 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Hatta SC and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatta SC 14%, Al Wahda FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hatta SC) and 57% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Hatta SC have failed to score in 86% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatta SC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatta SC play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Hatta SC's recent matches and 71% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatta SC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hatta SC's recent games and 57% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatta SC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Hatta SC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Wahda FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Hatta SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Hatta SC 0-4 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatta SC 0.71 xG and Al Wahda FC 2.06 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC outscored their 2.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatta SC attack 0.51 / defence 1.29 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 14/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatta SC 12% | Draw 19% | Al Wahda FC 69%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatta SC 57%, Al Wahda FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatta SC's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hatta SC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.