Dibba Al Hisn 0-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajman at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Dibba Al Hisn welcome Ajman to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al Hisn have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al Hisn's home record at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium: 1W 1D 5L from 7 Pro League appearances (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajman — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ajman — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dibba Al Hisn register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, Ajman in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dibba Al Hisn, 1 for Ajman and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 1–5 with Ajman winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dibba Al Hisn trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Ajman trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al Hisn 75% and Ajman 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dibba Al Hisn 69% | Ajman 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al Hisn 1.53 xG and Ajman 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.816 / defence 1.450 | Ajman attack 0.965 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.465. Data: 16 Dibba Al Hisn games / 42 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 29% | Draw 21% | Ajman 50%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al Hisn 3.45 | Draw 4.76 | Ajman 2.00. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al Hisn 71% | Ajman 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 29% | Draw 21% | Ajman 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Dibba Al Hisn 1.53 / Ajman 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.816 / def 1.450 | Ajman attack 0.965 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Ajman (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Ajman xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman kick off?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman?
Dibba Al Hisn 0 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman part of?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al Hisn a 29% chance of winning, Ajman a 50% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Dibba Al Hisn and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Ajman?
Record (1 meetings): Dibba Al Hisn 0W | Draws 0 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Ajman in?
Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Ajman (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dibba Al Hisn's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Dibba Al Hisn's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
29%
3.45
21%
4.69
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Total xG
3.58
2.05
Ajman xG
3.45
29%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
13%
7.77
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
4%
26.80
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Dibba Al Hisn and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Dibba Al Hisn and 2.05 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dibba Al Hisn come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 4D 10L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Dibba Al Hisn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (6W 1D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Dibba Al Hisn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dibba Al Hisn's home form reads 1W 1D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajman have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dibba Al Hisn are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.69 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al Hisn have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Ajman in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al Hisn
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Ajman in coming into this match?
Dibba Al Hisn have gone 2W 4D 10L in their last 16 games (0.62 PPG), while Ajman have gone 6W 1D 9L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al Hisn at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al Hisn at home: 0.57 PPG; Ajman away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dibba Al Hisn
0
Draws
2
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Ajman?
From 2 meetings on record, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, Ajman have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al Hisn and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Dibba Al Hisn 0-1 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al Hisn and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al Hisn 71%, Ajman 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Dibba Al Hisn and 71% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al Hisn home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al Hisn play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Dibba Al Hisn's games and 57% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al Hisn vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Dibba Al Hisn's matches and 71% of Ajman's.
Do Dibba Al Hisn and Ajman tend to score early?
Dibba Al Hisn have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ajman in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Dibba Al Hisn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Dibba Al Hisn 0-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.53 xG and Ajman 2.05 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dibba Al Hisn fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ajman landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.82 / defence 1.45 against Ajman attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 16/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 29% | Draw 21% | Ajman 50%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 69%, Ajman 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajman's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.