Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Bataeh at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al Bataeh travel to Dibba Stadium to take on Dibba Al-Fujairah. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 1D 8L from 9 outings — a 0.11 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.44 goals per game and conceding 2.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.22 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah at Dibba Stadium this season: 0W 0D 4L from 4 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Bataeh stand at 3W 0D 6L from 9 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 2.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.11 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Bataeh are 0.89 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.11), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Al Bataeh trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 44% versus Al Bataeh 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 44% | Al Bataeh 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.10 xG and Al Bataeh 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.697 / defence 1.500 | Al Bataeh attack 0.873 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.344. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 9 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 24% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 53%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al Bataeh 1.89. Al Bataeh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al-Fujairah 75% | Al Bataeh 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 24% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.10 / Al Bataeh 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.697 / def 1.500 | Al Bataeh attack 0.873 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Al Bataeh xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 0 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 24% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-1D-8L in 9 | 0.11 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 2.22 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-0D-6L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating (0.70) and Al Bataeh's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
24%
4.23
23%
4.26
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.86
1.76
Al Bataeh xG
4.23
24%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
4%
24.60
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.76 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent record stands at 0W 1D 8L from 9 games, a 0.11 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Bataeh, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 6L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Bataeh by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al-Fujairah heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dibba Al-Fujairah have managed 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Bataeh's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Al Bataeh travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Bataeh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 0.78 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 1D 8L in their last 9 games (0.11 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 3W 0D 6L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Bataeh's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.00 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dibba Al-Fujairah have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0
Draws
1
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 3, Al Bataeh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Bataeh see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 75%, Al Bataeh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 75% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 50% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's matches and 75% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Bataeh edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-1 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.10 xG and Al Bataeh 1.76 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dibba Al-Fujairah fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.70 / defence 1.50 against Al Bataeh attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 24% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 53%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 44%, Al Bataeh 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Bataeh arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.11. Form held, and they took the win. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.