Baniyas SC 1-4 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Baniyas SC face Sharjah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Baniyas SC welcome Sharjah FC to Baniyas Stadium in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Thursday 31 October 2024 at 12:50 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Baniyas SC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sharjah FC stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sharjah FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Sharjah FC's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Baniyas SC's last 10 home games and Sharjah FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Sharjah FC have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Baniyas SC.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2024, ended Baniyas SC 2–3 Sharjah FC — a Sharjah FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sharjah FC have won 6 of 6 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 66% and Sharjah FC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 62% | Sharjah FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.51 xG and Sharjah FC 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 1.017 / defence 1.097 | Sharjah FC attack 0.988 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.895 / away 1.732. Sharjah FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.783, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Baniyas SC's projected output down. Data: built from Baniyas SC's last 32 games and Sharjah FC's last 32.
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 31% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 3.22 | Draw 4.42 | Sharjah FC 2.16. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Baniyas SC's last 10 home games and Sharjah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baniyas SC 70% (last 10 home games) | Sharjah FC 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 31 October 2024 at 12:50 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 31% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Baniyas SC 1.51 / Sharjah FC 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 1.017 / def 1.097 | Sharjah FC attack 0.988 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.895 / away 1.732 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Sharjah FC xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC FAQs
What time does Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 12:50 UK time on Thursday 31 October 2024 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Baniyas SC 1 - 4 Sharjah FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 31% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (1.02) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baniyas SC's last 32 games and Sharjah FC's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
31%
3.22
23%
4.42
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.39
1.88
Sharjah FC xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
5%
21.06
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.88 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 6D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 1.78 PPG from 32 outings (15W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across their last 16 home games, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Baniyas SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 1.81 points per game from their last 16 away games (8W 5D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.09 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sharjah FC in 75%.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Baniyas SC (Home) vs Sharjah FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC Form FAQs
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 9W 6D 17L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 15W 12D 5L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.50 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Oct 2023, when Sharjah FC won Sharjah FC 5-0 Baniyas SC.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baniyas SC have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baniyas SC at 69%, Sharjah FC at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Baniyas SC and 62% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Baniyas SC's games and 81% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Baniyas SC's matches and 62% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 75% of Sharjah FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Baniyas SC 1-4 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.51 xG and Sharjah FC 1.88 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.78, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 31% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 46%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 62%, Sharjah FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.