Baniyas SC 2-0 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Urooba make the trip to Baniyas Stadium to face Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Baniyas SC (all games): 2W 3D 4L across 9 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 1D 3L this season (5 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al Urooba's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 4D 5L from 9 games (0.44 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.56 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Urooba have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.56 in Baniyas SC's favour (1.00 vs 0.44) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Baniyas SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al Urooba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 56% and Al Urooba 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 44% | Al Urooba 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.38 xG and Al Urooba 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.941 / defence 1.186 | Al Urooba attack 0.679 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.317. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Baniyas SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Baniyas SC games / 9 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 42% | Draw 31% | Al Urooba 27%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Al Urooba 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 40% | Al Urooba 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 42% | Draw 31% | Al Urooba 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Baniyas SC 1.38 / Al Urooba 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.941 / def 1.186 | Al Urooba attack 0.679 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al Urooba xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba?
Baniyas SC 2 - 0 Al Urooba.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 42% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Urooba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Urooba in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-4D-5L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.56 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (0.94) and Al Urooba's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Urooba's attack (0.68x) against Baniyas SC's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.26
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.06
Al Urooba xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.06 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Urooba, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 5L across 9 games — 0.44 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baniyas SC by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Urooba heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Urooba's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baniyas SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 1.00 scored and 2.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Urooba in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 0W 4D 5L in their last 9 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Urooba away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
0
Draws
2
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Al Urooba have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 27 March 2025, when Baniyas SC 2-1 Al Urooba.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 50%, Al Urooba 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Baniyas SC) and 50% (Al Urooba).
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 50% of games; Al Urooba in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 50% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 50% of Al Urooba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Urooba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al Urooba 2-0 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.38 xG and Al Urooba 1.06 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Urooba landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Al Urooba attack 0.68 / defence 1.41, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 42% | Draw 31% | Al Urooba 27%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 44%, Al Urooba 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Urooba's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baniyas SC arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.44. Form held, and they took the win. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.