Baniyas SC 2-3 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al Ain (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baniyas SC face Al Ain.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baniyas SC and Al Ain meet at Baniyas Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Baniyas SC's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 0W 4D 6L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Baniyas Stadium this season.
Al Ain (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Ain are 1.10 PPG clear of Baniyas SC in recent Pro League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al Ain, who have claimed 6 wins from 8 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Al Ain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Ain have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Baniyas SC — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al Ain — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 46% versus Al Ain 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 58% | Al Ain 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 0.87 xG and Al Ain 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.812 / defence 1.202 | Al Ain attack 1.159 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.497. Data: 41 Baniyas SC games / 42 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 15% | Draw 20% | Al Ain 65%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | Al Ain 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Al Ain (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Ain at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 50% | Al Ain 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 15% | Draw 20% | Al Ain 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Baniyas SC 0.87 / Al Ain 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.812 / def 1.202 | Al Ain attack 1.159 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Al Ain xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Ain kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Ain kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Ain?
Baniyas SC 2 - 3 Al Ain.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Ain part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 15% chance of winning, Al Ain a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Ain?
Record (8 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 2 | Al Ain 6W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Ain in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Al Ain (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 0.81x the league average against Al Ain's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Ain's attack (1.16x) against Baniyas SC's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
15%
6.83
20%
5.02
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.95
2.08
Al Ain xG
6.83
15%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
12%
8.04
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
2%
54.95
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 2.08 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Ain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 10W 8D 23L from 41 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 6L across 41 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Ain by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baniyas SC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 3W 7D 10L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Ain's away record stands at 11W 5D 4L across 20 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.02 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Al Ain in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 10W 8D 23L in their last 41 games (0.93 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 22W 13D 6L in their last 41 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.80 PPG; Al Ain away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al Ain in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Ain have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 4-0 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baniyas SC have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Ain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Baniyas SC
2
Draws
8
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 0, Al Ain have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-4 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 55%, Al Ain 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Baniyas SC and 70% for Al Ain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 35%; Baniyas SC have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Ain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Baniyas SC's games and 60% of Al Ain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Baniyas SC's matches and 70% of Al Ain's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Ain tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Ain edge out Baniyas SC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Baniyas SC 2-3 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 0.87 xG and Al Ain 2.08 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Baniyas SC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Ain outscored their 2.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against Al Ain attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 15% | Draw 20% | Al Ain 65%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 58%, Al Ain 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Al Ain's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.