Al-Wasl FC 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Wasl FC face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zabeel Stadium plays host to Al-Wasl FC versus Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's home record at Zabeel Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Zabeel Stadium.
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Wasl FC's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad Kalba's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Wasl FC, 0 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 6 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 61% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 59% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 2.02 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.078 / defence 0.766 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.936 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.444. Al-Ittihad Kalba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Al-Wasl FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Al-Wasl FC games / 51 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 59% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 40% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 59% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Wasl FC 2.02 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.078 / def 0.766 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.936 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Wasl FC 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 59% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 2W | Draws 6 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (1.08) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.94x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.23
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.03
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
2%
43.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.03 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 51 games, going 26W 13D 12L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad Kalba sit at 1.10 PPG from 51 outings (13W 17D 21L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 16W 6D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.31 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 26W 13D 12L in their last 51 games (1.78 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 17D 21L in their last 51 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.16 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Wasl FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 0-3 on 21 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
6
Draws
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-3 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 52%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Wasl FC) and 68% (Al-Ittihad Kalba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 2.02 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.03 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 59% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 17%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 59%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.