Al Wahda FC 1-2 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Sharjah FC travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's home record at Al Nahyan Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Wahda FC 2.50 PPG, Sharjah FC 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Wahda FC have won 1, Sharjah FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2021, ended 3–0 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Wahda FC trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sharjah FC trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 62% versus Sharjah FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 57% | Sharjah FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.21 xG and Sharjah FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.072 / defence 1.122 | Sharjah FC attack 0.838 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.249. Data: 21 Al Wahda FC games / 21 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 37% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Sharjah FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 60% | Sharjah FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 37% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.21 / Sharjah FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.072 / def 1.122 | Sharjah FC attack 0.838 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sharjah FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 2 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 37% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wahda FC 1W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.61
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.17
Sharjah FC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.17 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 13W 6D 2L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC's form line: 13W 3D 5L from 21 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wahda FC on 2.14 PPG, Sharjah FC on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L).
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sharjah FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wahda FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al Wahda FC's scoring rate against Sharjah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 13W 6D 2L in their last 21 games (2.14 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 13W 3D 5L in their last 21 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.10 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al Wahda FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
3
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-2 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 60%, Sharjah FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Wahda FC) and 40% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 40%; Sharjah FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 40% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Wahda FC's recent games and 40% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sharjah FC defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Wahda FC 1-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.21 xG and Sharjah FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against Sharjah FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.88, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 37% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 35%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 57%, Sharjah FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 2.14 PPG, Sharjah FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.