Al Wahda FC 3-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 5W 4D 1L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Al Wahda FC) versus 2.00 (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Wahda FC, 2 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 58% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wahda FC 58% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.29 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.158 / defence 0.927 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.133 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.658. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.745 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Al Wahda FC games / 41 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 29% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.08. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 80% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 29% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.29 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.158 / def 0.927 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.133 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.658 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 29% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (5 meetings): Al Wahda FC 1W | Draws 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
29%
3.51
24%
4.26
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.03
1.74
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.51
29%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
5%
20.00
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.74 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 24W 9D 8L from 41 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 27W 9D 5L across 41 games — 2.20 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wahda FC on 1.98 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 2.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 9W 7D 4L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 13W 6D 1L across 20 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.17 scored and 0.98 conceded. Al Wahda FC's scoring rate against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 24W 9D 8L in their last 41 games (1.98 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 27W 9D 5L in their last 41 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.70 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 5D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Wahda FC
6
Draws
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 1, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wahda FC at 65%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al Wahda FC and 65% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Wahda FC's games and 70% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 65% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai drew 3-3 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.29 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.74 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.13 / defence 0.74, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 29% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 58%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.98 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.