Al Wahda FC 1-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Wahda FC face Baniyas SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Nahyan Stadium plays host to Al Wahda FC versus Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Wahda FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's home record at Al Nahyan Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Nahyan Stadium this season.
Baniyas SC (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Baniyas SC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Al Wahda FC's favour (2.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Baniyas SC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Wahda FC 2W, Baniyas SC 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al Wahda FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Baniyas SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 57% versus Baniyas SC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 59% | Baniyas SC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.80 xG and Baniyas SC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.007 / defence 0.937 | Baniyas SC attack 1.008 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.435. Data: 51 Al Wahda FC games / 51 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 48% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Baniyas SC 3.45. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 60% | Baniyas SC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 48% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.80 / Baniyas SC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.007 / def 0.937 | Baniyas SC attack 1.008 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Baniyas SC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:15 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 48% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Wahda FC 2W | Draws 1 | Baniyas SC 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (1.01) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (1.01x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.34
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.35
Baniyas SC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
5%
20.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.35 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 30W 14D 7L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 14W 12D 25L from 51 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (12W 8D 5L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 7W 6D 12L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.29 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 30W 14D 7L in their last 51 games (2.04 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.76 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-0 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 56%, Baniyas SC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Wahda FC and 68% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al Wahda FC's games and 60% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 68% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC finished level at 1-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.80 xG and Baniyas SC 1.35 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Baniyas SC attack 1.01 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 48% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 29%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 59%, Baniyas SC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.