Al Nasr 2-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Khorfakkan travel to Al Maktoum Stadium to take on Al Nasr in Pro League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Monday 13 May 2024 at 16:10 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Nasr stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Nasr have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Khorfakkan — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Nasr are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al Nasr, 2 for Khorfakkan and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Al Nasr 1–3 Khorfakkan — a Khorfakkan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 48% versus Khorfakkan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 50% | Khorfakkan 67%). Note also that Khorfakkan surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Al Nasr recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.96 xG and Khorfakkan 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.965 / defence 0.855 | Khorfakkan attack 0.911 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.690. Khorfakkan's defence rating of 1.295 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Nasr's projected output up. Data: built from Al Nasr's last 48 games and Khorfakkan's last 48.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 52% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 1.91 | Draw 4.55 | Khorfakkan 3.89. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Nasr 50% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024 at 16:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 52% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Al Nasr 1.96 / Khorfakkan 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.965 / def 0.855 | Khorfakkan attack 0.911 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.690 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Khorfakkan xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:10 UK time on Monday 13 May 2024 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr 2 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 52% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Nasr and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (0.96) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Nasr's last 48 games and Khorfakkan's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
52%
1.91
22%
4.55
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.27
1.32
Khorfakkan xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
14%
7.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
4%
27.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.32 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 17W 11D 20L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Khorfakkan's form line: 12W 11D 25L from 48 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.29 PPG, Khorfakkan on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 23 home games (11W 4D 8L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 8D 13L from their last 23 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.23 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Nasr (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Nasr
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 17W 11D 20L in their last 48 games (1.29 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 11D 25L in their last 48 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.61 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won Khorfakkan 4-0 Al Nasr.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
4
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Nasr have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 39%, Khorfakkan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Al Nasr) and 65% (Khorfakkan).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Nasr and Khorfakkan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 65% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Al Nasr's recent games and 65% of Khorfakkan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 74% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Khorfakkan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Khorfakkan 2-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.96 xG and Khorfakkan 1.32 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against Khorfakkan attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 52% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 26%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 50%, Khorfakkan 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.29 PPG, Khorfakkan 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.