Al Nasr 1-2 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC meet at Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 January 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Nasr's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Al Maktoum Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Wahda FC (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's away record: 3W 3D 1L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (1.71 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Al Nasr, 1.70 for Al Wahda FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Al Nasr — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 50% versus Al Wahda FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 83% | Al Wahda FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.23 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.014 / defence 1.236 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.040 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.220. Data: 12 Al Nasr games / 12 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 28% | Draw 29% | Al Wahda FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Al Wahda FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Nasr 40% | Al Wahda FC 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 28% | Draw 29% | Al Wahda FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Nasr 1.23 / Al Wahda FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.014 / def 1.236 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.040 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al Wahda FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Al Nasr 1 - 2 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 28% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (1.01) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (1.04x) against Al Nasr's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
28%
3.60
29%
3.43
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.80
1.57
Al Wahda FC xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
6%
17.26
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.57 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Nasr's recent record stands at 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 1L across 12 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Al Nasr against 1.75 for Al Wahda FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Nasr have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Nasr are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.83 scored and 0.67 conceded. Al Nasr's scoring rate against Al Wahda FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 5W 6D 1L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.60 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 4-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al Nasr
5
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 0, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 40%, Al Wahda FC 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al Nasr and 60% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Al Nasr's games and 80% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al Nasr's matches and 60% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Al Nasr 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al Nasr 1-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.23 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.57 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.01 / defence 1.24 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 28% | Draw 29% | Al Wahda FC 43%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 83%, Al Wahda FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.50 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.