Al Nasr 0-3 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Al Nasr welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 4W 1D 2L from 7 Pro League matches — 1.86 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.57 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al Maktoum Stadium, Al Nasr have gone 2W 1D 0L this season (3 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Maktoum Stadium.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 1W 4D 2L from 7 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al Nasr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.86 PPG ahead (1.86 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 29% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 100% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 2.15 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.414 / defence 1.023 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.726 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.267. Al Nasr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Al Nasr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Al Nasr games / 7 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 63% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 14%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al Nasr (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Nasr 33% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 63% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Nasr 2.15 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.414 / def 1.023 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.726 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:15 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr 0 - 3 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 63% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 2.57 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 1W-4D-2L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.28
14%
7.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.09
0.94
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
7.39
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
12%
8.55
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
2%
63.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.94 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 4W 1D 2L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 1W 4D 2L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Al Nasr are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ittihad Kalba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 0.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 71%.
Defensively: Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Nasr's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Nasr have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2021, when Al-Ittihad Kalba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Nasr
3
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Nasr 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 33%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al Nasr and 33% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Nasr's matches and 33% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad Kalba run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Nasr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al Nasr 0-3 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 2.15 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.94 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Nasr fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad Kalba outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.41 / defence 1.02 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.73 / defence 1.37, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 63% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 14%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ittihad Kalba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 100%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.