Al Nasr 0-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Maktoum Stadium plays host to Al Nasr versus Ajman in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 6 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Al Nasr (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Nasr have posted 2W 2D 2L at Al Maktoum Stadium — 1.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Ajman have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 1W 1D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Al Nasr against 1.10 for Ajman. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Nasr lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Ajman winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 54% versus Ajman 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 85% | Ajman 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.44 xG and Ajman 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.964 / defence 1.258 | Ajman attack 0.714 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.234. Data: 13 Al Nasr games / 13 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 43% | Draw 30% | Ajman 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Ajman 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Al Nasr 50% | Ajman 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 43% | Draw 30% | Ajman 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Al Nasr 1.44 / Ajman 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.964 / def 1.258 | Ajman attack 0.714 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ajman xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Ajman kick off?
Al Nasr vs Ajman kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Al Nasr 0 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al Nasr vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Ajman part of?
Al Nasr vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 43% chance of winning, Ajman a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Nasr and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Ajman?
Record (1 meetings): Al Nasr 0W | Draws 0 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Al Nasr and Ajman in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Nasr's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.71x) against Al Nasr's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.32
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.55
1.11
Ajman xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.11 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 5W 3D 5L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman's form line: 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Al Nasr against 1.15 for Ajman. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, Ajman have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajman's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Nasr are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 0.92 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Ajman have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Ajman away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.33 PPG; Ajman away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ajman in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
2
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Ajman have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Ajman 2-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 50%, Ajman 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Al Nasr) and 33% (Ajman). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ajman in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 33% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Al Nasr's matches and 33% of Ajman's.
Do Al Nasr and Ajman tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ajman in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajman defy the odds to beat Al Nasr 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al Nasr 0-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.44 xG and Ajman 1.11 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Nasr fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Ajman attack 0.71 / defence 1.20, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 43% | Draw 30% | Ajman 27%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 85%, Ajman 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajman's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.38 PPG, Ajman 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.