Al-Jazira 1-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Jazira host Khorfakkan at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 February 2023 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Jazira have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Jazira at 1.60 PPG versus Khorfakkan's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Jazira have won 2, Khorfakkan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 4–2 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 55% versus Khorfakkan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 60% | Khorfakkan 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.80 xG and Khorfakkan 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.060 / defence 0.919 | Khorfakkan attack 0.760 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.511. Data: 40 Al-Jazira games / 40 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Khorfakkan 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 50% | Khorfakkan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Jazira 1.80 / Khorfakkan 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.060 / def 0.919 | Khorfakkan attack 0.760 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Khorfakkan xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Jazira 1 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 55% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Jazira 2W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.06) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.33
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.86
1.06
Khorfakkan xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
4%
27.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.06 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 22W 5D 13L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 12W 7D 21L from 40 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 2.26 PPG from 19 outings (14W 1D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 4D 13L from 19 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.35 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 22W 5D 13L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 7D 21L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.26 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2021, when Al-Jazira won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
4
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Al-Jazira 3-1 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 53%, Khorfakkan 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al-Jazira and 79% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Jazira's games and 63% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Jazira's matches and 79% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan finished level at 1-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.80 xG and Khorfakkan 1.06 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Khorfakkan attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 22%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 60%, Khorfakkan 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.