Al-Jazira 4-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Jazira host Khorfakkan at Sheikh Zayed Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sheikh Zayed Sports City, Al-Jazira have gone 5W 0D 1L this season (6 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sheikh Zayed Sports City. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Sheikh Zayed Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Jazira at 1.60 PPG versus Khorfakkan's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 60% and Khorfakkan 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 60% | Khorfakkan 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.48 xG and Khorfakkan 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.096 / defence 1.238 | Khorfakkan attack 0.988 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.387. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Al-Jazira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Al-Jazira games / 10 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 32% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Khorfakkan 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 50% | Khorfakkan 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sheikh Zayed Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 32% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Jazira 1.48 / Khorfakkan 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.096 / def 1.238 | Khorfakkan attack 0.988 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Khorfakkan xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 December 2021 at Sheikh Zayed Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Jazira 4 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Zayed Sports City.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 32% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.10) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
32%
3.16
28%
3.62
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.18
1.70
Khorfakkan xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.27
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.70 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 5W 1D 4L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.60 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.25 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2021, when Al-Jazira won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
4
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Al-Jazira 3-1 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 50%, Khorfakkan 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Jazira and 75% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Jazira's games and 75% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Jazira's matches and 75% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Khorfakkan 4-0 at Sheikh Zayed Sports City, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.48 xG and Khorfakkan 1.70 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.10 / defence 1.24 against Khorfakkan attack 0.99 / defence 1.27, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 32% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 41%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Jazira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 60%, Khorfakkan 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.60 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.