Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sharjah FC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1.30 for Sharjah FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sharjah FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, Sharjah FC have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Al-Ittihad Kalba's 2, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Sharjah FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sharjah FC have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sharjah FC half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 64% versus Sharjah FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 62% | Sharjah FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.56 xG and Sharjah FC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.876 / defence 1.178 | Sharjah FC attack 1.024 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.383. Sharjah FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 45 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Sharjah FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Sharjah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.56 / Sharjah FC 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.876 / def 1.178 | Sharjah FC attack 1.024 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Sharjah FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 2 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 36% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 7W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.88) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (1.02x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
36%
2.77
23%
4.30
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.23
1.67
Sharjah FC xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
7%
14.67
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.67 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 13W 13D 19L from 45 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 5D 18L across 45 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad Kalba heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 6W 8D 9L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 10W 4D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 22W 5D 18L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.13 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 0-4 on 20 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%, Sharjah FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 56% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 56% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 56% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Sharjah FC finished level at 2-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.56 xG and Sharjah FC 1.67 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.88 / defence 1.18 against Sharjah FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.28, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 41%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%, Sharjah FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.