Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Baniyas SC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Baniyas SC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.50 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1 for Baniyas SC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 56% versus Baniyas SC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 44% | Baniyas SC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.07 xG and Baniyas SC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.169 / defence 1.137 | Baniyas SC attack 1.032 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.337. Data: 34 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 34 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 49% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | Baniyas SC 3.45. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% | Baniyas SC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 49% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.07 / Baniyas SC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.169 / def 1.137 | Baniyas SC attack 1.032 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Baniyas SC xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 49% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 29% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 1 | Baniyas SC 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
49%
2.02
21%
4.72
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.64
1.57
Baniyas SC xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
4%
26.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.57 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 10W 12D 12L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 11W 9D 14L from 34 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.24 PPG, Baniyas SC on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 4D 8L from 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad Kalba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.32 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 10W 12D 12L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.44 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
3
Draws
4
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Baniyas SC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%, Baniyas SC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 62% (Baniyas SC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 56% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 62% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Baniyas SC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Baniyas SC 2-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.07 xG and Baniyas SC 1.57 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.17 / defence 1.14 against Baniyas SC attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 49% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 29%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 44%, Baniyas SC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.24 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.