Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Al Urooba to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 21 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 0W 4D 2L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.67 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 0W 3D 0L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Urooba stand at 0W 3D 3L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Al Urooba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Urooba's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 0.67 PPG versus Al Urooba's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Urooba in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% versus Al Urooba 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ittihad Kalba 17% | Al Urooba 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Ittihad Kalba surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al Urooba have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.17 xG and Al Urooba 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.813 / defence 1.042 | Al Urooba attack 0.676 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.113. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 6 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 37% | Al Urooba 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.44 | Draw 2.70 | Al Urooba 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% | Al Urooba 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 37% | Al Urooba 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.17 / Al Urooba 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.813 / def 1.042 | Al Urooba attack 0.676 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Al Urooba xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba kicked off at 15:15 on Thursday 21 October 2021 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 1 Al Urooba.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 41% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 21% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 0W-4D-2L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 0.81x the league average against Al Urooba's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Urooba's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
41%
2.42
37%
2.67
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
1.95
0.78
Al Urooba xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0.78 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 4D 2L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Urooba sit at 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Urooba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 0.67 PPG, Al Urooba on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 0W 3D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Urooba have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad Kalba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.83 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Al Urooba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 4D 2L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Urooba away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2024, when Al-Ittihad Kalba won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al Urooba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
0
Draws
1
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Al Urooba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Al Urooba 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%, Al Urooba 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 33% for Al Urooba.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Urooba in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 33% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 33% of Al Urooba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Al Urooba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al Urooba 2-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.17 xG and Al Urooba 0.78 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Al Urooba attack 0.68 / defence 1.32, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 37% | Al Urooba 21%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 17%, Al Urooba 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al Urooba's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.67 PPG, Al Urooba 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.