Al-Dhafra 1-2 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Al-Dhafra take on Baniyas SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Dhafra and Baniyas SC meet at Al Dhafra Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 16 September 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baniyas SC (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Pro League outings this term — 0.33 points per game. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.33 vs 0.33 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Baniyas SC — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Dhafra 33% | Baniyas SC 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Dhafra 0% | Baniyas SC 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.85 xG and Baniyas SC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.822 / defence 1.167 | Baniyas SC attack 0.868 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 0.897 / away 0.881. Data: 3 Al-Dhafra games / 3 Baniyas SC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 28% | Draw 41% | Baniyas SC 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.57 | Draw 2.44 | Baniyas SC 3.23. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 33% | Baniyas SC 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 28% | Draw 41% | Baniyas SC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG Al-Dhafra 0.85 / Baniyas SC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.822 / def 1.167 | Baniyas SC attack 0.868 / def 1.151 | league avg home 0.897 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Baniyas SC xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:45 on Thursday 16 September 2021 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 2 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 28% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 31% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Baniyas SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D. Baniyas SC (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Dhafra's attack at 0.82x the league average against Baniyas SC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.87x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.51
41%
2.46
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
1.74
0.89
Baniyas SC xG
3.51
28%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 0.89 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Baniyas SC sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.33 PPG for Al-Dhafra against 0.33 for Baniyas SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 0.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
Baniyas SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baniyas SC won 5-0 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Dhafra
1
Draws
5
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Baniyas SC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 0, Baniyas SC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Baniyas SC?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Baniyas SC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al-Dhafra) and 33% (Baniyas SC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Dhafra and 0% for Baniyas SC.
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 67% of games; Baniyas SC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 33% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 0% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baniyas SC edge out Al-Dhafra 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al-Dhafra 1-2 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.85 xG and Baniyas SC 0.89 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Baniyas SC outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.82 / defence 1.17 against Baniyas SC attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 28% | Draw 41% | Baniyas SC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Baniyas SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 0%, Baniyas SC 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 0.33 PPG, Baniyas SC 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock. Baniyas SC scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.