Al-Dhafra 1-3 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Dhafra Stadium plays host to Al-Dhafra versus Al Wahda FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 29 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games (0.71 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Al-Dhafra have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Dhafra have posted 0W 1D 2L at Al Dhafra Stadium — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Wahda FC have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Pro League outings this season: 2W 5D 0L. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 0.57. Defensively, 0.57 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wahda FC's away record: 1W 3D 0L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Al Wahda FC are the stronger side — 0.86 PPG clear of the hosts (1.57 vs 0.71). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 57% versus Al Wahda FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Dhafra 43% | Al Wahda FC 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.78 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.790 / defence 1.156 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.883 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.299. Al-Dhafra's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Al-Dhafra games / 7 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 20% | Draw 33% | Al Wahda FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 5.00 | Draw 3.03 | Al Wahda FC 2.13. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 67% | Al Wahda FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 20% | Draw 33% | Al Wahda FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Dhafra 0.78 / Al Wahda FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.790 / def 1.156 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.883 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al Wahda FC xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:15 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 3 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 20% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 2W-5D-0L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 0.57 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.79) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (0.88x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
20%
5.09
33%
3.01
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.11
1.32
Al Wahda FC xG
5.09
20%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
5%
19.14
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 16.1 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.32 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 2D 4L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (2W 5D 0L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Dhafra's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Wahda FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.57 scored and 0.57 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 5D 0L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.33 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 5-2 on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al-Dhafra 1-0 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al-Dhafra, 67% for Al Wahda FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Dhafra and 0% for Al Wahda FC.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 33%; Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Wahda FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Dhafra's games and 67% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 0% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Dhafra 1-3 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.78 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 20% | Draw 33% | Al Wahda FC 47%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 43%, Al Wahda FC 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.