Al-Dhafra 2-1 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Dhafra at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Dhafra Stadium plays host to Al-Dhafra versus Al Urooba in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Wednesday 25 May 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's home record at Al Dhafra Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al Urooba have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Urooba's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Dhafra, 0 for Al Urooba and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Al Urooba — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 48% versus Al Urooba 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 44% | Al Urooba 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.44 xG and Al Urooba 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.792 / defence 1.035 | Al Urooba attack 0.649 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.359. Al-Dhafra's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing Al-Dhafra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Al-Dhafra games / 25 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 49% | Draw 27% | Al Urooba 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Al Urooba 4.17. Al-Dhafra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Dhafra are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Dhafra if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 50% | Al Urooba 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 May 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 49% | Draw 27% | Al Urooba 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.44 / Al Urooba 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.792 / def 1.035 | Al Urooba attack 0.649 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Al-Dhafra (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Urooba xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba kicked off at 15:15 on Wednesday 25 May 2022 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba?
Al-Dhafra 2 - 1 Al Urooba.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 49% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Dhafra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Urooba?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 1 | Al Urooba 0W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Urooba in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al Urooba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Dhafra's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al Urooba's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Urooba's attack (0.65x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Dhafra Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.73
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.35
0.91
Al Urooba xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
6%
17.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 0.91 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra's recent record stands at 4W 7D 14L from 25 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Urooba, meanwhile, have gone 3W 9D 13L across 25 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Al-Dhafra against 0.72 for Al Urooba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Dhafra have managed 2W 4D 6L from 12 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Urooba's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.96 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Urooba in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 4W 7D 14L in their last 25 games (0.76 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 3W 9D 13L in their last 25 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al Urooba away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.83 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
1
Draws
0
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Urooba?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al Urooba have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2022, when Al-Dhafra 2-1 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al Urooba?
Al-Dhafra have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 50%, Al Urooba 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Dhafra) and 50% (Al Urooba).
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 42% of games; Al Urooba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 50% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 50% of Al Urooba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Dhafra edge out Al Urooba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Al Urooba 2-1 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.44 xG and Al Urooba 0.91 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against Al Urooba attack 0.65 / defence 1.46, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 49% | Draw 27% | Al Urooba 24%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 44%, Al Urooba 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al Urooba's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 0.76 PPG, Al Urooba 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Dhafra win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.