Al-Dhafra 1-2 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Jazira (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Dhafra face Al-Jazira.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Dhafra versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Dhafra have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 5L across 9 games at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Jazira (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Jazira arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Jazira, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 2–4 with Al-Jazira winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Jazira have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Dhafra half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 61% versus Al-Jazira 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 56% | Al-Jazira 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.96 xG and Al-Jazira 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.806 / defence 1.420 | Al-Jazira attack 0.970 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.432. Data: 18 Al-Dhafra games / 44 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Jazira 61%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Jazira 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 56% | Al-Jazira 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Jazira 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Dhafra 0.96 / Al-Jazira 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.806 / def 1.420 | Al-Jazira attack 0.970 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Al-Jazira xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 2 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 18% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Dhafra 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 4W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.81) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (0.97x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 18/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
18%
5.69
22%
4.58
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.94
1.97
Al-Jazira xG
5.69
18%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
14%
7.19
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
2%
40.85
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.97 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Al-Dhafra have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 3D 10L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 9W 4D 5L from 18 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Dhafra.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Dhafra have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (4W 0D 5L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.56 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Dhafra have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Jazira in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Jazira won 0-3 on 15 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
5
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al-Jazira have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Al-Dhafra 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Jazira see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 56%, Al-Jazira 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Al-Dhafra) and 33% (Al-Jazira). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira in 33%; Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Dhafra's games and 56% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 33% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al-Dhafra 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al-Dhafra 1-2 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.96 xG and Al-Jazira 1.97 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.81 / defence 1.42 against Al-Jazira attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 18/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Jazira 61%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 56%, Al-Jazira 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.