Al Bataeh 3-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Bataeh face Sharjah FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium plays host to Al Bataeh versus Sharjah FC in Pro League (matchday 8). Kick-off: Thursday 23 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time.

Form

Al Bataeh (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Bataeh's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sharjah FC have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sharjah FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Al Bataeh against 1.40 for Sharjah FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Sharjah FC edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Al Bataeh 0–3 Sharjah FC — a Sharjah FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 58% versus Sharjah FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 64% | Sharjah FC 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Bataeh surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Sharjah FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.19 xG and Sharjah FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.847 / defence 0.854 | Sharjah FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.748. Data: built from Al Bataeh's last 33 games and Sharjah FC's last 33.

Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.30 | Draw 3.90 | Sharjah FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Bataeh 60% (last 10 home games) | Sharjah FC 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights