Al Bataeh 3-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khorfakkan make the trip to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to face Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 6 October 2023 at 14:20 UTC.
Current Form
Al Bataeh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh's home record at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Khorfakkan have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Al Bataeh against 0.80 for Khorfakkan. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Khorfakkan in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al Bataeh 0W, Khorfakkan 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Bataeh — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 57% versus Khorfakkan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 67% | Khorfakkan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.15 xG and Khorfakkan 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.724 / defence 0.845 | Khorfakkan attack 0.894 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.813. Al Bataeh's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Al Bataeh games / 30 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 31% | Draw 27% | Khorfakkan 42%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Khorfakkan 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 60% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 31% | Draw 27% | Khorfakkan 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Bataeh 1.15 / Khorfakkan 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.724 / def 0.845 | Khorfakkan attack 0.894 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.813 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Khorfakkan xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 14:20 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Al Bataeh 3 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 31% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
Record (2 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 0.72x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.89x) against Al Bataeh's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.75
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.52
1.37
Khorfakkan xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.52
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.37 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Bataeh come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 7D 17L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Khorfakkan sit at 0.97 PPG from 30 outings (7W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Al Bataeh against 0.97 for Khorfakkan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Bataeh's home form reads 1W 6D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Khorfakkan have taken 0.57 points per game from 14 outings (1W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Attack vs Defence
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.13 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Bataeh's home record (0.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.64 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Khorfakkan won 3-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 50%, Khorfakkan 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Bataeh) and 57% (Khorfakkan).
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 43% of games; Khorfakkan in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 57% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Bataeh's recent games and 57% of Khorfakkan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Bataeh cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Khorfakkan 3-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.15 xG and Khorfakkan 1.37 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Bataeh beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.72 / defence 0.84 against Khorfakkan attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 31% | Draw 27% | Khorfakkan 42%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al Bataeh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 67%, Khorfakkan 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.83 PPG, Khorfakkan 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.