Al Bataeh 0-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Al Bataeh welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 January 2026 at 12:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Bataeh stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Al Bataeh) versus 0.30 (Dibba Al-Fujairah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Bataeh, 1 for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Bataeh trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 70% and Dibba Al-Fujairah 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 70% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.68 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 1.031 / defence 1.259 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.749 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.317. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Al Bataeh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Al Bataeh games / 10 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 48% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.57. Al Bataeh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 70% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jan 2026, 12:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 48% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Bataeh 1.68 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 1.031 / def 1.259 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.749 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 12:55 on Saturday 3 January 2026 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al Bataeh 0 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 48% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (2 meetings): Al Bataeh 1W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 1W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 1.03x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.16
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.92
1.24
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
5%
18.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.24 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 2W 0D 8L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 7L across 10 games — 0.30 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 0.60 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah on 0.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Bataeh have managed 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 (0.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Al Bataeh's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.75 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dibba Al-Fujairah have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Bataeh
0
Draws
3
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 1, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Bataeh at 75%, Dibba Al-Fujairah at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al Bataeh and 50% for Dibba Al-Fujairah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Bataeh's games and 75% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al Bataeh's matches and 50% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's.
Do Al Bataeh and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Al Bataeh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Bataeh 0-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.68 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.24 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 35/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 48% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 28%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Dibba Al-Fujairah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 70%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.60 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dibba Al-Fujairah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.