Al Bataeh 1-0 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Al Urooba travel to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to take on Al Bataeh. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025, 13:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Bataeh — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's home record at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Urooba stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Urooba have posted 0W 0D 5L from 5 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Bataeh 0.50 PPG, Al Urooba 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Urooba in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 73% versus Al Urooba 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 82% | Al Urooba 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 2.21 xG and Al Urooba 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.801 / defence 1.391 | Al Urooba attack 0.525 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.949 / away 1.477. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing Al Bataeh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Al Bataeh games / 11 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 61% | Draw 24% | Al Urooba 15%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Al Urooba 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Bataeh (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Bataeh are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Bataeh 80% | Al Urooba 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 61% | Draw 24% | Al Urooba 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Bataeh 2.21 / Al Urooba 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.801 / def 1.391 | Al Urooba attack 0.525 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.949 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al Urooba xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba kicked off at 13:05 on Friday 10 January 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba?
Al Bataeh 1 - 0 Al Urooba.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 61% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Urooba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Urooba in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al Urooba (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.80) and Al Urooba's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Urooba's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
61%
1.64
24%
4.19
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.29
1.08
Al Urooba xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
11%
9.16
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
60.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.08 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Al Bataeh have picked up 0.45 PPG on a 1W 2D 8L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Urooba's form line: 1W 0D 10L from 11 games, 0.27 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 0.45 PPG, Al Urooba on 0.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Bataeh have posted 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L).
On the road, Al Urooba have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.45 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.64 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 games (0.45 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 1W 0D 10L in their last 11 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al Urooba away?
Al Bataeh's home record (0.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.20 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al Bataeh
0
Draws
0
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Urooba?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Urooba have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2025, when Al Urooba 1-3 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al Urooba?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 60%, Al Urooba 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al Bataeh and 80% for Al Urooba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 40% of games; Al Urooba in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 20% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al Bataeh's matches and 80% of Al Urooba's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Bataeh edge out Al Urooba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Al Urooba 1-0 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 2.21 xG and Al Urooba 1.08 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al Urooba landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.80 / defence 1.39 against Al Urooba attack 0.53 / defence 1.42, drawn from 37/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 61% | Draw 24% | Al Urooba 15%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 82%, Al Urooba 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Urooba's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.45 PPG, Al Urooba 0.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Urooba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.