Al Bataeh 2-3 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al Bataeh welcome Al Nasr to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 December 2025 at 12:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Bataeh have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Bataeh have posted 2W 3D 5L at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Nasr — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Al Bataeh) versus 1.40 (Al Nasr). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Bataeh register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Nasr in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al Bataeh, 2 for Al Nasr and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Al Bataeh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Bataeh trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al Nasr trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 62% and Al Nasr 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 59% | Al Nasr 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.31 xG and Al Nasr 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.951 / defence 1.130 | Al Nasr attack 1.014 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.232. Data: 34 Al Bataeh games / 34 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 35% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Al Nasr 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 70% | Al Nasr 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Dec 2025, 12:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 35% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Bataeh 1.31 / Al Nasr 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.951 / def 1.130 | Al Nasr attack 1.014 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al Nasr xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr kicked off at 12:50 on Sunday 21 December 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Al Bataeh 2 - 3 Al Nasr.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 35% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Nasr?
Record (6 meetings): Al Bataeh 3W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 2W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Nasr in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.95) and Al Nasr's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.90
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.72
1.41
Al Nasr xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.41 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh come into this having played 34 games, going 9W 6D 19L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Nasr sit at 1.44 PPG from 34 outings (14W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Bataeh's home form reads 3W 4D 9L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Nasr have taken 1.00 points per game from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Nasr's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.56 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Nasr in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 9W 6D 19L in their last 34 games (0.97 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.81 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
2
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Nasr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 3, Al Nasr have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Al Nasr 1-1 Al Bataeh.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 62%, Al Nasr 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Bataeh and 69% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Bataeh's games and 62% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Bataeh's matches and 69% of Al Nasr's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al Bataeh 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al Bataeh 2-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.31 xG and Al Nasr 1.41 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Nasr outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Al Nasr attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 35% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 40%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 59%, Al Nasr 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.