Ajman 0-4 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Ain at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Al Ain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ajman Stadium plays host to Ajman versus Al Ain in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ajman have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's home record at Ajman Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Ain (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al Ain arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ajman, 1 for Al Ain and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Al Ain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Ain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 46% versus Al Ain 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 54% | Al Ain 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 0.95 xG and Al Ain 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.067 / defence 1.311 | Al Ain attack 0.927 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.306. Al Ain's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 24 Ajman games / 24 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 23% | Draw 25% | Al Ain 52%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Al Ain 1.92. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Ain as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Ain if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 60% | Al Ain 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 23% | Draw 25% | Al Ain 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Ajman 0.95 / Al Ain 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.067 / def 1.311 | Al Ain attack 0.927 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al Ain xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al Ain kick off?
Ajman vs Al Ain kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al Ain?
Ajman 0 - 4 Al Ain.
Where is Ajman vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al Ain part of?
Ajman vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 23% chance of winning, Al Ain a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ajman and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Ain?
Record (1 meetings): Ajman 0W | Draws 0 | Al Ain 1W.
What form are Ajman and Al Ain in?
Ajman (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Al Ain (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ajman's attack rating (1.07) and Al Ain's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Ain's attack (0.93x) against Ajman's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
23%
4.44
25%
3.97
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.53
1.59
Al Ain xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
5%
21.71
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.6 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ajman and 1.59 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al Ain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ajman's recent record stands at 9W 5D 10L from 24 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain, meanwhile, have gone 19W 4D 1L across 24 games — 2.54 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Ain by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 5W 4D 3L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Ain's away record stands at 9W 2D 1L across 12 trips, a 2.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajman are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.17 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Al Ain in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 19W 4D 1L in their last 24 (2.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.58 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al Ain in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Ain go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 6-0 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Ain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ajman
2
Draws
7
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 1, Al Ain have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al Ain 2-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 58%, Al Ain 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ajman) and 33% (Al Ain).
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al Ain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ajman's recent matches and 33% of Al Ain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ajman's recent games and 33% of Al Ain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Al Ain tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Ajman 0-4 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 0.95 xG and Al Ain 1.59 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Ajman fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al Ain outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.07 / defence 1.31 against Al Ain attack 0.93 / defence 0.71, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 23% | Draw 25% | Al Ain 52%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 54%, Al Ain 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Ain's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.