Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Avanhard plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Avanhard: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Avanhard. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Vorskla Poltava are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Vorskla Poltava, 1.50 for Veres Rivne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vorskla Poltava lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 53% versus Veres Rivne 21%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vorskla Poltava 47% | Veres Rivne 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.01 xG and Veres Rivne 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.056 / defence 0.988 | Veres Rivne attack 0.960 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.127. Data: 19 Vorskla Poltava games / 19 Veres Rivne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 34% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 36%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Veres Rivne 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 40% | Veres Rivne 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (19 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 34% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.01 / Veres Rivne 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.056 / def 0.988 | Veres Rivne attack 0.960 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Veres Rivne xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 2 Veres Rivne.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 34% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 0W | Draws 1 | Veres Rivne 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.96x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
34%
2.98
30%
3.32
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.08
1.07
Veres Rivne xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.07 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 9W 6D 4L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Veres Rivne's form line: 7W 5D 7L from 19 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 1.37 for Veres Rivne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.84 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne in 21%.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Veres Rivne in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Veres Rivne away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.10 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
3
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 3-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Vorskla Poltava) and 20% (Veres Rivne) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 50% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 40%; Veres Rivne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 20% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 50% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Veres Rivne edge out Vorskla Poltava 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Vorskla Poltava 1-2 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.01 xG and Veres Rivne 1.07 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Veres Rivne outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Veres Rivne attack 0.96 / defence 0.86, drawn from 19/19 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 34% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 36%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 47%, Veres Rivne 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.74 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.