Vorskla Poltava 2-2 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Vorskla Poltava take on Dnipro-1.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 26 July 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 0.92 xG and Dnipro-1 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 0.678. Data: 0 Vorskla Poltava games / 0 Dnipro-1 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 36% | Draw 43% | Dnipro-1 21%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.78 | Draw 2.33 | Dnipro-1 4.76. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Dnipro-1's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 21% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jul 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 36% | Draw 43% | Dnipro-1 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 33% | xG Vorskla Poltava 0.92 / Dnipro-1 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.937 / away 0.678 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Dnipro-1 xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 26 July 2021 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 2 Dnipro-1.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 36% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 21% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.85x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.78
43%
2.34
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
1.58
0.66
Dnipro-1 xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.34
43%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.6 | 13.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.2%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.66 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Pre-Season
Dnipro-1
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 5-1 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1?
From 6 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Dnipro-1 1-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 1, as Vorskla Poltava and Dnipro-1 drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.92 xG and Dnipro-1 0.66 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dnipro-1 outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 36% | Draw 43% | Dnipro-1 21%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.