Veres Rivne 4-3 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veres Rivne host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Veres Rivne stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Veres Rivne have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, FC Kharkiv have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Kharkiv's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Kharkiv are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Veres Rivne hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for FC Kharkiv and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Veres Rivne 1–0 FC Kharkiv — a Veres Rivne win.
The head-to-head data gives Veres Rivne an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 49% versus FC Kharkiv 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 44% | FC Kharkiv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.32 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 1.114 / defence 1.248 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.780 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.211. FC Kharkiv's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Veres Rivne's defence rating of 1.248 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Kharkiv's projected output up. Data: built from Veres Rivne's last 43 games and FC Kharkiv's last 43.
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 32%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.55 | Draw 3.55 | FC Kharkiv 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Veres Rivne 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form FC Kharkiv (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Veres Rivne 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Kharkiv 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Veres Rivne 1.32 / FC Kharkiv 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 1.114 / def 1.248 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.780 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Kharkiv xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv FAQs
What time does Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Veres Rivne 4 - 3 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 39% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 1.11x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Veres Rivne's last 43 games and FC Kharkiv's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.55
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.50
1.18
FC Kharkiv xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.18 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 8W 12D 23L from 43 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 16L across 43 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 0.84 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 5W 6D 11L from their last 22 home games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 3W 11D 8L across their last 22 away games, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.81 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Veres Rivne (Home) vs FC Kharkiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Veres Rivne
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv Form FAQs
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 8W 12D 23L in their last 43 games (0.84 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 17D 16L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Veres Rivne's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 0.95 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Kharkiv have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Kharkiv won FC Kharkiv 4-0 Veres Rivne.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Veres Rivne
0
Draws
3
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Veres Rivne have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: FC Kharkiv 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 59%, FC Kharkiv 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Veres Rivne) and 27% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 36%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 32% of games; FC Kharkiv in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 32% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 59% of FC Kharkiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Veres Rivne edge out FC Kharkiv 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat FC Kharkiv 4-3 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.32 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.18 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Kharkiv outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.11 / defence 1.25 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 32%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 44%, FC Kharkiv 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 0.84 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.