SK Poltava 0-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Zirka Stadium to take on SK Poltava. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 December 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Poltava stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Poltava's home record at Zirka Stadium: 1W 1D 4L from 6 Premier League appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SK Poltava's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
SK Poltava in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 64% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 64% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.82 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.824 / defence 1.396 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.815 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.245. Data: 14 SK Poltava games / 14 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Poltava 22% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.96. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 50% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Zirka Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Poltava 22% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG SK Poltava 0.82 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SK Poltava attack 0.824 / def 1.396 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.815 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
SK Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Zirka Stadium.
What was the final score in SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
SK Poltava 0 - 3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Zirka Stadium.
What competition is SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives SK Poltava a 22% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SK Poltava and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Poltava and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
SK Poltava (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SK Poltava's attack at 0.82x the league average against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus SK Poltava's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
22%
4.60
27%
3.68
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
SK Poltava xG
Total xG
2.24
1.42
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
4.60
22%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
5%
18.97
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 15.1 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are SK Poltava and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for SK Poltava and 1.42 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Poltava's recent record stands at 2W 3D 9L from 14 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for SK Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 9L across 14 games — 0.79 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Poltava on 0.64 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 0.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Poltava have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.79 PPG overall record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Poltava are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.07 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Poltava have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Poltava
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Poltava and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
SK Poltava have gone 2W 3D 9L in their last 14 games (0.64 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 3W 2D 9L in their last 14 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Poltava at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Poltava at home: 0.67 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Poltava and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SK Poltava
1
Draws
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, SK Poltava have won 0, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SK Poltava and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 SK Poltava.
Who has won more matches between SK Poltava and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Poltava 50%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SK Poltava) and 33% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 50%; SK Poltava have failed to score in 33% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Poltava home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Poltava play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SK Poltava's recent matches and 33% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SK Poltava's recent games and 33% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Poltava and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
SK Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Epitsentr Dunayivtsi run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat SK Poltava 0-3 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.82 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.42 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SK Poltava fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.40 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 22% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 64%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Poltava's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Poltava 0.64 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win broke the near-deadlock. SK Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.