Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face Veres Rivne.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk host Veres Rivne at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv.
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Shakhtar Donetsk have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shakhtar Donetsk: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Veres Rivne, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The historical record gives Shakhtar Donetsk a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 48% versus Veres Rivne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 56% | Veres Rivne 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.30 xG and Veres Rivne 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.690 / defence 0.843 | Veres Rivne attack 0.965 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.233. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.690 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 46 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 19% | Veres Rivne 15%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Veres Rivne 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Veres Rivne 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 19% | Veres Rivne 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.30 / Veres Rivne 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.690 / def 0.843 | Veres Rivne attack 0.965 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Veres Rivne xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne?
Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 66% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne?
Record (8 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 6W | Draws 2 | Veres Rivne 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking strength (1.69x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.15
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.30
1.00
Veres Rivne xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
10%
9.99
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
1%
68.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.00 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 46 games, going 28W 13D 5L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.24 PPG from 46 outings (14W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 16W 4D 2L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.37 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.07 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 28W 13D 5L in their last 46 games (2.11 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 14W 15D 17L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Veres Rivne away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.36 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
Draws
0
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne?
From 9 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 7, Veres Rivne have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 54%, Veres Rivne 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 50% for Veres Rivne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 36% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 50% of Veres Rivne's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Veres Rivne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Veres Rivne 1-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.30 xG and Veres Rivne 1.00 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.69 / defence 0.84 against Veres Rivne attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 19% | Veres Rivne 15%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 56%, Veres Rivne 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.