Shakhtar Donetsk 6-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (81%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shakhtar Donetsk face Inhulets.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk welcome Inhulets to Arena Lviv in Premier League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Inhulets — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Inhulets's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Shakhtar Donetsk have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Shakhtar Donetsk hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Inhulets and 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Inhulets — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
The head-to-head data gives Shakhtar Donetsk an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Inhulets in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 54% versus Inhulets 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 54% | Inhulets 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.93 xG and Inhulets 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.716 / defence 0.995 | Inhulets attack 0.746 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.030. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.716 — their 2.93 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Inhulets's defence rating of 1.421 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output up. Inhulets's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 42 games and Inhulets's last 13.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 81% | Draw 13% | Inhulets 7%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.24 | Draw 7.94 | Inhulets 15.17. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (81%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 81% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 home games and Inhulets's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 60% (last 10 home games) | Inhulets 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 81% | Draw 13% | Inhulets 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.93 / Inhulets 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.716 / def 0.995 | Inhulets attack 0.746 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Inhulets xG
51%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets FAQs
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Shakhtar Donetsk 6 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 81% chance of winning, Inhulets a 7% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.72) and Inhulets's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 42 games and Inhulets's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
81%
1.24
13%
7.94
7%
15.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.69
0.77
Inhulets xG
1.24
81%
Home win
7.94
13%
Draw
15.17
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
5%
18.65
Win to Nil
38%
2.66
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.77 for Inhulets, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 13 games, going 8W 2D 3L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.46 PPG from 13 outings (0W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.54 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 5W 0D 1L across their last 6 home games, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Shakhtar Donetsk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 0.33 points per game from their last 6 away games (0W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.69 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk (Home) vs Inhulets (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets Form FAQs
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 games (2.00 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 6D 7L in their last 13 (0.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Inhulets away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.50 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Inhulets in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Nov 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won Shakhtar Donetsk 6-0 Inhulets.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Inhulets have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: Inhulets 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 67%, Inhulets 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 50% for Inhulets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inhulets in 33%; Inhulets in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's games and 50% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 50% of Inhulets's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 50% of Inhulets's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Inhulets 6-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.93 xG and Inhulets 0.77 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.72 / defence 0.99 against Inhulets attack 0.75 / defence 1.42, drawn from 42/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 81% | Draw 13% | Inhulets 7%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 81%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 54%, Inhulets 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inhulets's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.