Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face Chornomorets.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Chornomorets travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on Shakhtar Donetsk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadion Livyi Bereh — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Livyi Bereh. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.50 lags behind their overall 3.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Livyi Bereh this season.
Chornomorets — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Chornomorets have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shakhtar Donetsk are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 2.30 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shakhtar Donetsk: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Chornomorets, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shakhtar Donetsk and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Chornomorets trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 52% versus Chornomorets 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 62% | Chornomorets 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.07 xG and Chornomorets 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.516 / defence 0.932 | Chornomorets attack 0.955 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.233. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.516 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 56 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 59% | Draw 22% | Chornomorets 19%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Chornomorets 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Chornomorets 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 59% | Draw 22% | Chornomorets 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.07 / Chornomorets 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.516 / def 0.932 | Chornomorets attack 0.955 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Chornomorets xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Shakhtar Donetsk 3 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 59% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets?
Record (4 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 3W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.52x the league average against Chornomorets's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.51
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.17
1.10
Chornomorets xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
13%
7.91
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
2%
42.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.10 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 56 games, going 42W 10D 4L for 2.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 1.14 PPG from 56 outings (18W 10D 28L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 22W 4D 2L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 1.25 points per game from 28 outings (10W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.25 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 42W 10D 4L in their last 56 games (2.43 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 18W 10D 28L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Chornomorets away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.50 PPG; Chornomorets away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
Draws
0
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Chornomorets have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 46%, Chornomorets 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 54% (Chornomorets). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 61% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 54% of Chornomorets's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Chornomorets 3-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.07 xG and Chornomorets 1.10 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chornomorets landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.52 / defence 0.93 against Chornomorets attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 59% | Draw 22% | Chornomorets 19%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 62%, Chornomorets 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chornomorets's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.