Ruh Lviv 4-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 43%, yet in-form Vorskla Poltava provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Ruh Lviv welcome Vorskla Poltava to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Vorskla Poltava haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vorskla Poltava — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Vorskla Poltava 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 50% versus Vorskla Poltava 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 43% | Vorskla Poltava 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.30 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.117 / defence 0.804 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.989 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.263. Data: 31 Ruh Lviv games / 30 Vorskla Poltava games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 29%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Vorskla Poltava 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vorskla Poltava (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 50% | Vorskla Poltava 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.30 / Vorskla Poltava 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.117 / def 0.804 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.989 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Vorskla Poltava xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Ruh Lviv 4 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 43% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (4 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 2 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 1.12x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.58
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.30
1.00
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
8%
12.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.00 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 11D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. Vorskla Poltava haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.17 PPG, Vorskla Poltava on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 5W 7D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.27 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Vorskla Poltava
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 8W 11D 11L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.47 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 60%, Vorskla Poltava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ruh Lviv) and 53% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ruh Lviv's games and 60% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 53% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ruh Lviv run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Vorskla Poltava 4-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.30 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.00 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Ruh Lviv beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.12 / defence 0.80 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 29%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 43%, Vorskla Poltava 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.17 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.