Ruh Lviv 1-1 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Minai meet at Arena L'viv in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv at Arena L'viv this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Minai's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Minai have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ruh Lviv, 0 for Minai and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Minai half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 50% versus Minai 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 39% | Minai 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.53 xG and Minai 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.144 / defence 1.088 | Minai attack 0.841 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.204. Data: 28 Ruh Lviv games / 29 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 47% | Draw 26% | Minai 27%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Minai 3.70. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 60% | Minai 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Monday 14 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 47% | Draw 26% | Minai 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.53 / Minai 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.144 / def 1.088 | Minai attack 0.841 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Minai xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Minai kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Minai kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 14 November 2022 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Minai?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Minai.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Minai part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Minai is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 47% chance of winning, Minai a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Minai?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 1 | Minai 0W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Minai in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Minai (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.14) and Minai's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Minai's attack (0.84x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.92
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.63
1.10
Minai xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.10 for Minai, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 28 games, going 7W 8D 13L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Minai sit at 0.57 PPG from 28 outings (2W 10D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Minai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 5W 5D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Minai have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (2W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.64 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Minai in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 7W 8D 13L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while Minai have gone 2W 10D 16L in their last 28 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Minai away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.43 PPG; Minai away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Minai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
5
Draws
0
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Minai?
From 5 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Minai have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2024, when Minai 1-1 Ruh Lviv.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Minai see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 57%, Minai 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ruh Lviv) and 50% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 29% of games; Minai in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 43% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 50% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Minai tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Minai in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Minai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv and Minai finished level at 1-1 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.53 xG and Minai 1.10 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.14 / defence 1.09 against Minai attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 47% | Draw 26% | Minai 27%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 39%, Minai 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Minai's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.04 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.